Trade Wars and Macroeconomic Impacts

A Multi‑Country Panel Data Analysis

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📌 Project Overview

This project provides an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of global trade wars using a multi‑country panel dataset (2015–2025).

The study evaluates how trade war shocks transmit through different economic channels, including:

• International trade flows
• Output and growth dynamics
• Labor market outcomes
• Foreign direct investment (FDI)

The analysis combines exploratory data analysis (EDA), event‑study identification, and fixed‑effects panel regressions to isolate trade‑war effects from global shocks such as the COVID‑19 pandemic.

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📂 Repository Structure

Trade-Wars-Macroeconomic-Impacts/
│
├── data/
│   └── trade_volume_annual.csv
│
├── notebooks/
│   └── Trade_Wars_Macroeconomic_Impacts_Panel_Analysis.ipynb
│
├── outputs/
│   └── figures/
│
├── README.md
└── requirements.txt

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🔍 Methodology

1. Data cleaning and integrity checks
2. Period and indicator validation
3. Subset‑wise exploratory data analysis
4. Event‑study analysis (baseline year: 2017)
5. Fixed‑effects regressions with robust standard errors

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📊 Key Visual Results

Trade Dynamics

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GDP & Growth

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Labor Market

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Investment (Key Channel)

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⏱ Event‑Study Evidence

Exports

GDP Growth

FDI Net Inflows

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🔑 Core Findings

• Trade wars did not cause persistent declines in aggregate trade or GDP.
• GDP growth volatility increased, but mean growth remained resilient.
• Labor markets were largely buffered until the global pandemic shock.
• Foreign direct investment shows the strongest and most persistent response to trade wars, highlighting the role of policy uncertainty and investor expectations.

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📎 Full Analysis

The complete workflow, code, and econometric results are available in:

🔗 Trade_Wars_Macroeconomic_Impacts_Panel_Analysis.ipynb

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🛠 Tools & Libraries

• Python
• pandas, numpy
• matplotlib, seaborn
• statsmodels

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📄 License

This project is licensed under the MIT License.